Do most Lithuanians want Belarus sanctions eased? What the poll actually found

Publication date: 16 July 2026

Claim

Belarusian state television channel STV reported that significantly more people in Lithuania support easing or fully removing sanctions on Belarus than maintaining or tightening the current policy.

Verdict

Misleading. The poll did find that 35% supported easing some sanctions and pursuing dialogue with Minsk. Another 11% considered sanctions unnecessary. But it is inaccurate to compare only those figures with the 30% who supported keeping the current policy. A further 17% wanted sanctions tightened. Together, easing or removing sanctions received 46%, while maintaining or tightening them received 47%. The difference is one percentage point and is smaller than the poll's stated margin of error.

In brief

• Baltijos tyrimai conducted the representative poll for Lithuanian public broadcaster LRT.

• It interviewed 1,000 Lithuanian residents aged 18 and over from 23 April to 7 May 2026.

• 35% supported easing some sanctions and seeking dialogue with Minsk.

• 11% supported removing sanctions altogether.

• 30% supported keeping the current policy.

• 17% supported tightening sanctions.

• 7% had no opinion.

• The poll therefore shows an almost even split, not a significant lead for the easing side.

Why this matters

Polls are often used in political messaging as evidence that the public demands a change of course. A manipulation does not need to alter any number. It can simply combine favourable answer categories while leaving comparable categories on the other side separate.

Here, 35% looks larger than 30% when those two answers are shown alone. The question, however, had four substantive options. A consistent grouping produces 46% versus 47%. This reading does not erase genuine support for dialogue and partial sanctions relief, but it does not support describing that position as dominant.

The issue has direct public relevance for Lithuania, Belarusian civil society and the Belarusian diaspora. Sanctions policy is connected to repression in Belarus, support for Russia's war against Ukraine and regional security. Public opinion data should therefore be presented in full rather than through selective addition of categories.

What we checked

We compared:

• the claim recorded by the Belarusian Investigative Center;

• LRT's original Lithuanian-language report;

• the English-language ELTA account published by Delfi;

• the Reform.news English report linking to LRT;

• the sample, fieldwork dates and stated margin of error.

Evidence

1. The full answer set does not give the easing side a lead

LRT reports four main answers:

• ease some sanctions and seek dialogue with Minsk: 35%;

• maintain the current policy and existing sanctions: 30%;

• tighten sanctions further: 17%;

• remove sanctions altogether: 11%.

Another 7% had no opinion.

Combining the two positions that would weaken the policy gives 35 + 11 = 46%. Combining the positions that would maintain or strengthen it gives 30 + 17 = 47%. The two groups are effectively even.

2. One percentage point is not a significant gap

LRT and Delfi state that the maximum margin of error is 3.1 percentage points. The difference between 46% and 47% is one point. This result cannot support a claim that either broad position has a significant advantage.

Even the comparison between the individual categories of 35% and 30% needs care. It shows that partial easing was the most popular single option, not that a majority of residents supported weakening sanctions.

3. Support for dialogue is not the same as demanding an end to sanctions

The option selected by 35% combined easing some sanctions with seeking dialogue. It did not call for all restrictions to be removed. Only 11% said sanctions were unnecessary altogether.

The same distinction applies on the other side. Maintaining current policy and tightening sanctions are separate positions. They can be grouped to assess general resistance to easing only if the two easing options are also grouped consistently.

4. The original report describes opinion as split in half

One LRT section is headed "Opinions split in half." Its text also notes that the recurring thesis that a majority wants easing is, at minimum, incorrect. Delfi's English report describes Lithuanians as divided, not united behind sanctions removal.

5. The poll measures opinion at a specific time

The survey was conducted from 23 April to 7 May 2026 among 1,000 residents aged 18 and over. It records answers during that period. It does not establish a lasting trend and cannot by itself explain why respondents chose dialogue, the status quo or tighter measures.

What remains unknown

The public reports do not provide a full cross-tabulation by age, education, language, region and political preference. LRT says easing was more common among older and left-leaning respondents, but that is not enough to draw detailed conclusions about every social group.

The single question also does not reveal which specific sanctions respondents wanted eased. "Some sanctions" may refer to different measures for different people.

We cannot establish STV's internal editorial reasoning. This fact-check assesses the public claim against the published poll results.

Conclusion

The poll does not show a significant advantage for people who want Belarus sanctions eased or removed. It shows an almost even division: 46% for easing or removal and 47% for maintaining or tightening. The claim of a clear lead results from selective comparison of answer categories and misleads the audience.

Sources

• LRT, full poll report: https://www.lrt.lt/naujienos/lietuvoje/2/2943359/trecdalis-gyventoju-sankciju-baltarusijai-nesvelnintu-o-17-proc-jas-net-dar-grieztintu

• Delfi / ELTA, English account of the results: https://www.delfi.lt/en/politics/lithuanians-split-over-belarus-sanctions-policy-poll-120257832

• Belarusian Investigative Center, review of the STV report: https://investigatebel.org/en/fakenews/stv-lithuania-belarus-sanctions-poll-omitted-result

• Reform.news, report linking to LRT: https://reform.news/en/lrt-reports-what-lithuanians-think-about-sanctions-against-belarus/amp

Corrections and updates

If a full poll table, a methodological clarification or a correction to the source reports becomes available, Unity Bridge will update this article and record the date of the change.