Belarusian state media portray EU neighbours as a military threat. What the data shows

Publication date: 29 May 2026

Claim

Belarusian state media and related pro-Kremlin messaging regularly portray Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland and other EU countries as a military threat to Belarus and as participants in aggressive pressure against Minsk and Moscow.

Verdict

Misleading. Monitoring shows that this narrative is widely used in Belarusian state media. But the open sources checked for this fact-check do not support the main propaganda message: that neighbouring EU countries are preparing aggression against Belarus or Russia. Reliable sources describe a different picture: the Baltic states and Poland are strengthening defence in response to Russia's war against Ukraine, hybrid operations, airspace incidents, migration pressure and information attacks.

In brief

FactCheck.LT analysed 6,891 Belarusian state media items from February 2026 about six EU countries: Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Germany and France. The analysis identified propaganda indicators in 681 items and classified 284 items as high risk.

For the Baltic states, the dominant frame was military threat. The report says the military buildup narrative accounted for 42 percent of propaganda materials about Lithuania, 47 percent about Latvia and 38 percent about Estonia. For the Baltic states together, the military frame accounted for 43 percent of propaganda materials.

These data show a repeated information campaign. They do not prove real aggressive preparations by EU neighbours against Belarus.

Why this matters

Such messaging can persuade audiences that conflict with neighbouring countries is unavoidable, that independent media and international organisations hide the threat, and that restrictions, mobilisation measures or repression inside Belarus are necessary self-defence.

For people in Belarus, Lithuania, Poland, Latvia, Estonia and the Belarusian diaspora, this affects safety, trust between neighbours, attitudes toward refugees and perceptions of support for Ukraine.

What we checked

We checked not one single post but the central repeated claim: whether open sources confirm that Belarus's EU neighbours are an aggressive military threat, as Belarusian state media framing suggests.

For this check, we used:

• FactCheck.LT and FIMI Frontier monitoring of Belarusian state media in February 2026;

• an EDMO publication based on Belarusian Investigative Center analysis of false stories in Belarusian propaganda about Europe;

• NATO materials on Russian disinformation and defence policy;

• the EEAS report on Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference as context for information operations.

Evidence

1. Monitoring confirms the repetition of the military frame

FactCheck.LT writes that in February 2026 Belarusian state media covered the Baltic states mostly through a narrow military frame. The report calls this a "military monotone". For Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, the dominant narrative was military buildup.

This is an important finding. It confirms that we are dealing with a repeated pattern, not an isolated phrase.

2. A narrative is not proof of the threat it describes

The FactCheck.LT report measures how Belarusian state media talk about EU neighbours. It does not provide evidence that the Baltic states or Poland are preparing an attack on Belarus. On the contrary, the report classifies a large share of materials as propaganda or materials with indicators of foreign information manipulation.

The distinction matters: the monitoring shows how the propaganda frame works. It does not validate the content of that frame.

3. NATO describes its posture as defence and deterrence

NATO states that the Alliance is defensive and does not seek confrontation. On its "Setting the record straight" page, NATO says it is not at war with Russia and is not a party to Russia's war against Ukraine. On its deterrence and defence page, NATO links stronger defence to the most dangerous security environment since the Cold War and to Russia's actions, including hybrid campaigns, disinformation, border provocations, cyber attacks and electronic interference.

This does not mean that there are no military risks in the region. There are risks. But public explanations by NATO countries and the Alliance describe stronger defence as a response to threats, not as preparation for aggression against Belarus.

4. Wider analysis shows Europe is often portrayed as hostile and weak at the same time

EDMO published an analysis by the Belarusian Investigative Center on false stories that Belarusian propaganda spreads about Europe. In the sample from August 2023 to August 2024, the main themes were Poland, Russia's war against Ukraine and sanctions against Russia and Belarus.

In these materials, Europe is often portrayed as dangerous, hostile, economically weak and morally degraded at the same time. This mix is useful for propaganda: the audience is invited to fear neighbours and look down on them at once.

5. The EU treats this as part of the FIMI problem

The EEAS describes Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference as a problem for security and democratic resilience. The second EEAS report is based on 750 investigated incidents from December 2022 to November 2023 and proposes a networked approach to detection, analysis and response.

This is not proof about every single Belarusian state media item. It does confirm that manipulative foreign information campaigns are treated by the EU as a systemic issue, not as ordinary political disagreement.

What remains unknown

We did not check every individual item from Belarusian state TV channels and websites in February 2026. We also did not review classified military intelligence held by regional governments.

Open sources do not allow us to say that every defence decision by Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia is perfect or free from the need for public scrutiny. But they do not confirm the claim that those countries are preparing aggression against Belarus.

Conclusion

Belarusian state media do frequently present EU neighbours as a military threat. This is confirmed by FactCheck.LT monitoring. But the central propaganda conclusion is not confirmed: open sources do not show that Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland or other EU countries are preparing an attack on Belarus.

A more accurate formulation is this: the region has become more militarised and tense because of Russia's war against Ukraine, hybrid operations and rising security threats. Propaganda reverses cause and effect and turns neighbours' defensive measures into an image of aggression.

Sources

• FactCheck.LT / FIMI Frontier: How Belarusian State Media Talked About Its EU Neighbours, February 2026. https://factcheck.lt/eng/news/

• EDMO / Belarusian Investigative Center: What lies about Europe is Belarus propaganda feeding to its citizens? https://edmo.eu/publications/what-lies-about-europe-is-belarus-propaganda-feeding-to-its-citizens

• NATO: Setting the record straight. https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/wider-activities/natos-approach-to-counter-information-threats/setting-the-record-straight

• NATO: Deterrence and defence. https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/deterrence-and-defence/deterrence-and-defence

• EEAS: 2nd EEAS Report on Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference Threats. https://www.eeas.europa.eu/

Corrections and updates

There are no corrections at the time of publication. If new official data or clarifications about specific claims appear, this article will be updated.